apocalyse now.

everyone gets everything he wants. what i wanted was a mission. and for my sins, they gave me one........brought it up to me like room service.

debunking martingale

Odds of losing (or winning) a 50-50 x times in a row is simply 0.5^x

So 5 is 0.5^5 = 1/32
10 is 0.5^10 = 1/1024 etc...

Games of Chance
Have you ever seen have a streak of bad luck in a game of chance? They often become aggressive players, believing "I'm due!" These people make a common mistake, believing that the past affects odds in the future. It usually doesn't.

The Odds of a Coin Toss

Let's start with the simplest game of chance, a fair coin toss. On any given coin toss, there's a 1 in 2 chance that heads will come up, and there's also a 1 in 2 chance that tails will come up.

What are the odds that heads will come up twice in a row? It's 1 in (2 * 2). 1 in 4. The odds that heads will come up 3 times in a row? 1 in 8. 4 times? 1 in 16. 5 times? 1 in 32. You get the idea.

So imagine a gambler has been betting tails each time. Remember, tails never fails!

First toss, heads comes up. The gambler loses.

Second toss, heads comes up. The gambler loses again.

Third toss, heads comes up. The gambler loses again.

Fourth toss, heads comes up. The gambler loses again.

Fifth toss, heads comes up. The gambler loses again.

Chance Analysis

First, the gambler has had terrible "luck". As we know, the odds of the gambler losing 5 straight coin tosses is 1 in 32. (Note: The gambler's odds are the same whether he chose heads, tails, or any combination of the two.) The gambler knows the odds of losing 5 times in a row is 1 in 32, and he isn't pleased.

But the gambler also knows, that there's only a 1 in 64 chance of losing 6 coin tosses in a row. He's due! He decides to bet even more thinking that the 1 in 64 chance will never happen.

Is the Gambler Correct?

The gambler is making a common mistake. The coin came up heads 5 times in a row? It will never come up a 6th time. There's only a 1 in 64 chance of heads coming up on 6 times in a row.

Is the gambler correct? What are the odds that the 6th coin toss will be heads?

True Odds

The gambler is wrong. The previous 5 coin tosses have no bearing on the 6th toss. Each is an independent trial. Like the first toss, the odds of the 6th toss being heads is 1 in 2. The gambler thinks he's due, but he's no more due than he was on the first toss.

Conclusion

Now you know the truth about the odds behind a hot or cold streak. Next time you hear somebody say, "I'm due," you'll know that they really aren't! Don't get caught making the same mistake! by Scott Schlimmer

seeking resolution

most importantly. a fundamental apprehension of this lays waste to the most widely accepted models of popular thought.

simply put, the facts change. truth is a dream. change appears to be constant. language, while useful, is ultimately limited, and potentially destructive and isolating. semantics rules the day.

oh and love, well love is freedom. more correctly = the meaning of love appears to be best incorporated in the term freedom. at least it seems that way to me. =]

so if you ever wanted a concrete answer for 'why is it better to know *some* of the questions rather than *all* the answers...then apparently you need to ask more questions. so there.

i am consuming copious amounts of alan watts recently. loved the guy for years now but decided to collect and review EVERYTHING i can get my mittens on recorded or printed. result? confirmation and ALOT of reminding. i will soundcloud the highlights sometime soon.

most of everything i believe to know and care to interpret, expound upon, or simply pass along at this point i owe directly to robert anton wilson, alan watts, john c lily, e j gold, terrence mckenna, and alfred korzybski, among others. oh, daniel goleman and fritjof capra. in case you ever wondered and even if you didn't.

that-s entertainment

ok, so a few things/questions...you might not know/might also be wondering about. i am enlightened/enlightening. LUCKY YOU =] - - - - - IT TURNS OUT I AM *UNPOPULAR*. something has been bothering me for 37 years now. i mean really bothering me. like this little pebble rock thing in my shoe, always there always reminding me no matter where i am what i am doing...IT TURNS OUT I AM UNPOPULAR. seriously, that sucks. HOWEVER, i am still a part of the major winner crowd!!! isn't that amazing!? i don't know how it happens like that but apparently it DOES. my sister said i wasn't properly 'socialized' as a small child. whatever. btw, what's the deal with the host stand and my secret crushes?? its 9 am and i am AWAKE!!! woo hoo...!

soundcloud? yep, right here. this could get interesting. i am not saying it will. but it could. you wanna hope? hello, martha. =] hello world. whatever...world.

no sleep, no problems

last night was remarkable, and the fact i am anxious to share this with you is remarkable in itself. i guess i just miss everyone. yep, EVERYONE. the fact that i had ZERO sleep last nite worked out perfectly. the world loved me. they were eating out of my hand and i wasn't even that funny. i really could stand to be funnier. this just goes to show you how much i worry about my tables. and its not just about the money. i had been doing FINE all week but i felt like a real dick. but not yesterday. yesterday i was gorgeous. anyway i had a little over $300 in sales @ 6:30 and by 9 i had over $1100. like i said pretty remarkable. so for the record, no sleep = no self consciousness. i had suspected that i had been getting too much sleep, and i was right. apparently sleeping makes me feel like an asshole. glad i got that figured out.

walking talking question mark

i speak to the rooms in my apartment like children. i apologize, i console, and i make promises i am not sure i can keep. i move my bed into the dining room at 2:30 am and lament the insomnia...or is it the loneliness? i used to care less. now i worry...will it always be like this?

i yearn for a transformation, but a little passion would suffice. it's still not time however, and i am weary of my impatience and even more of my indecision. my youth has failed me, and the past seems trivial and yet still mocking. i have traded caprice for couches. my once quixotical heart gives way to a polluted complacency.